The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Feb. 12, edition that TD Cowen analyst Tim James has lowered his recommendation for Transat AT to "hold" from "buy." The Globe's David Leeder writes that Mr. James gave his share target a $2 trim to $3. Analysts on average target the shares at $3.30. Mr. James issued his downgrade after Monday's announcement of the suspension of its flights to Cuba as well as higher jet fuel assumptions. Mr. James says in a note: "Given Transat's relatively thin margins (8.3 per cent F2026 estimate), unexpected impacts on traffic and/or pricing can have meaningful impacts on earnings. While balance sheet leverage remains elevated, in our view, we believe there is sufficient liquidity ($165-million in cash and equivalents at Q4/F25) to address a temporary loss of earnings and cash flow.
We believe there will be a time to acquire Transat shares when the Cuba situation is resolved and demand uncertainty normalizes, leaving investors to focus on the franchise strength, attractive valuation and eventual earnings growth. We may miss early upside in the stock, but prefer a lower risk/higher certainty entry point as we believe there will still be significant medium- to long-term upside potential."
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