The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that last year, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the Ottawa-Alberta memorandum of understanding. The Globe's guest columnist Yrjo Koskinen writes that an event study of five key names tied directly to Alberta's oil and pipeline ecosystem -- Canadian Natural, Cenovus, Suncor, Enbridge and TC Energy -- tells a sobering story. From Nov. 24 to Dec. 2, all five stocks underperformed the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Their cumulative abnormal returns were modestly but consistently negative. In plain English, investors did not treat the MOU as value-creating news.
That disconnect between the euphoria in the room and the skepticism in the market matters. Capital, not applause, is what ultimately decides whether a pipeline, a transmission line or a major transit project gets built. Who pays? is one question. This goes to the heart of Mr. Carney's broader ambition to put Canada back in the business of building big things again.
The lesson, however, investors took from the last decade is that Canadian megaprojects move slowly, if at all, and rarely within budget. Accepting the promise of "this project actually gets built on budget" is optimistic, no matter how big the vision.
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