The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday, June 8, edition that the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain its interest rate at 2.25 per cent this week. The Globe's Mark Rendell writes that the global oil price shock from the Middle East conflict has driven inflation to the upper end of the BOC's target. Recent data show the Canadian economy stalled this winter and spring, raising recession fears. With inflation risks high and growth risks low, the BOC is expected to remain cautious. The key question on Wednesday is how Governor Tiff Macklem will talk about the balance of risks. This will shape market expectations for monetary policy decisions later this year, and influence bond markets and borrowing costs. RBC economist Claire Fan says: "I do think that the balance is tilted a little bit more toward some concerns on growth, as opposed to the worries about inflation that we're seeing in the United States or in the euro area. Inflation has actually slowed quite a bit. While the macro data hasn't looked so resilient." Financial markets are currently pricing in one quarter-point rate hike from the BOC later in the year. In March, markets were briefly pricing in as many as three rate hikes in the back half of the year.