The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that TD chief economist Beata Caranci says that with U.S.-imposed tariffs a moving target, trade diversion and the search for new markets have dominated the mindset of exporters around the world. Ms. Caranci writes that this will evolve even more in 2026. In a short period, China's most tech-exposed exports have found new homes with the country's Asian trading partners, while its total exports hit a record high in November, with broad gains across continents and countries. Canadian businesses are also succeeding in rotating their export markets faster than many analysts expected. Tapping into 27 trading partners, Canadian companies have recovered nearly $11-billion of the $18.5-billion loss to the U.S. However, the nature of trade has shifted, leaving industries in the winner and loser column. About one-third of the gain stems from oil exports, with the next biggest gain in jet engines and aircraft. In contrast, the steel, aluminum, car and lumber industries are hard hit due to crippling U.S. Section 232 tariffs running as high as 50 per cent. These industries suffered a net loss of $8.8-billion relative to 2024. The singular tool of lower interest rates has its limits.
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