The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, March 11, edition that Rory Johnston, oil-market analyst at Toronto-based Commodity Context, said U.S. President Donald Trump and his officials are sending multiple conflicting messages to the market. The Globe's Emma Graney and Jeffrey Jones write that on Monday, for instance, the President said the war in Iran would end "very soon," then moments later, suggested more aggressive military action would come should Iran persist in blocking oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Johnston pointed to reports of Iran beginning to set mines in the strait, which could lead to a "nightmare scenario" of the waterway remaining impassable for an extended period. That could push crude toward $200 a barrel, he said (all figures U.S.). Analysts at Wood Mackenzie said the prospects of restoring oil flows from Persian Gulf states have deteriorated in recent days, as attacks have intensified. The possibility still exists that Brent could top $150 a barrel in the coming weeks, they said, adding that supply volumes at risk are larger than when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
"In our view, $200 a barrel is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026."
© 2026 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.