The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday, March 9, edition that the stage is set for elevated energy prices as the war in Iran reshapes global crude oil and LNG markets. The Globe's Brent Jang writes that prior to the conflict's start on Feb. 28, about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG passed through the Strait of Hormuz. With recent strikes on Iranian oil facilities, upward pressure on prices is expected as Middle Eastern countries cut production, according to Paris Compliance analyst Michael Sambasivam.
He says an oil price spike above $100 (U.S.) a barrel would likely be short-lived, especially if shipping disruptions are resolved quickly. He says, "It's a question of how long does the price shock last." As long as the strait is in turmoil, "there's going to be elevated oil and gas prices."
Mr. Sambasivan says, "While supply disruptions may boost profits temporarily, episodic price spikes actually structurally harm long-term demand for oil and threaten economies like Canada's that are overly dependent on oil production."
He says the Middle East dynamics affecting oil markets are also applicable to the LNG sector.
CIBC says the Iran conflict "is putting global LNG markets at risk of a significant supply shock."
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