The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that history suggests stocks are poised for weakness as the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates, but investors trying to gauge the ultimate market fallout are focused on how aggressively the central bank hikes. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe says that in an effort to cool persistently high inflation, the Fed last week increased its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023. The U.S. central bank signalled it expects to follow the quarter-percentage-point hike with another increase by the end of the year. The S&P 500 has logged a 2.6-per-cent decline, on a median basis, three months after the first hike in a cycle, shown in six cycles since the Fed began announcing outcomes of its meetings since 1994. In these periods, the index endured a "meaningful drawdown" mostly not long after the initial hike, according to RBC's Lori Calvasina. In five of the cycles, declines from S&P 500 peak levels ranged from 8 to 14 per cent, with the lows occurring from one month to 3-1/2 months after the hike. "The fact that we are starting this new phase keeps us vigilant for a near-term ... garden-variety pullback of 5-10 per cent in the S&P 500," she said in a note.