The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that things started to go very wrong for the Canadian economy around the same time the Justin Trudeau era began. The Globe's Tim Shufelt writes that when you scan the economic data, 2015 emerges as a pivotal moment. It was roughly then that the nation's fortunes took a nasty turn across a range of indicators from business investment to economic output per capita. It makes for an easy story: Mr. Trudeau broke the Canadian economy. If it were so simple. "Canada is emerging from an unprecedented capital recession," said an RBC report. The reality is complex. The current narrative of an overambitious green Ottawa glosses over two major shocks that hit the country around the same time Mr. Trudeau was first elected prime minister -- the oil price crash that began in 2014, and the breakdown of the U.S. trade relationship starting in 2017. Macro forces are as much to blame as bad policy. While Mr. Trudeau's climate agenda gets most of the blame for evaporating oil and gas investment, this was not just a Canadian story. The same thing happened on a global scale. The world was awash in oil in 2014, first from explosive growth in U.S. fracking, then from OPEC opening its taps.
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