The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Dec. 7, edition that the Bank of Canada surprised no one by holding its target for the overnight lending rate at 5 per cent on Wednesday. The Globe's guest columnists Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler write that last week's releases by Statistics Canada showing a decline in third quarter GDP and an uptick in the unemployment rate sealed the deal.
Nevertheless, the announcement made it clear that the BOC is not satisfied with the pace at which inflation is falling, stressed that the fight against inflation is not yet won, and stated that it stands ready to boost rates again if inflation numbers disappoint.
It is clear that the BOC is concerned about inflation expectations becoming de-anchored from the 2-per-cent target. It continues to prioritize re-establishing any credibility it lost in 2022 when it promised to keep rates low (they were 0.25 per cent at the time), and wants to avoid premature rekindling of demand -- especially in the housing market -- through expectations of much lower interest rates next year.
However, the truth of the matter is that almost all the key variables point to a softening economy and inflation headed in the right direction.
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