The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that the Bank of Canada wrapped up Wednesday's interest-rate announcement with words suggesting that relief is coming.
The Globe's David Parkinson writes that the BOC also said it is still "prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed." In doing so, the BOC has pushed back the start date for rate cuts.
In holding its policy rate steady at 5 per cent for the third straight decision, the BOC said global growth and inflation have slowed further, that the Canadian economy "stalled" and that the data "suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand."
In short, the BOC outlined ample justification to back off its policy bias toward further hikes. It chose not to.
One factor might have been the season itself. Historically, the BOC has been hesitant to shift its policy just ahead of the holidays. Should any unexpected shocks hit over the break, the BOC will have avoided sticking its neck out.
The bigger issue, however, is that bond market participants have convinced themselves that the BOC's first rate cuts are coming by spring, much earlier than most economists think, and likely earlier than the BOC's leadership, privately, has been contemplating.
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