The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that a big disconnect between financial markets and central banks has just got deeper, with traders increasing their bets on interest rate cuts in the United States, Canada and Europe as evidence grows that inflationary pressures are fast abating. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe says that money markets are now pricing in at least 100 basis points apiece of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank next year, and have this week shifted the expected timing of their first moves firmly forward into the first half of 2024. Adding to the pressure on the Bank of Canada, the C.D. Howe Institute said on Thursday that its Monetary Policy Council -- made up of 12 top financial market and monetary economists --is recommending the bank cut its overnight rate by 100 basis points (bps), to 4 per cent – by the end of 2024. It recommends the first cut should come by June. The recommendation reflects the median vote of the council's members, which include the most senior economists with BMO, RBC and CIBC. By December of 2024, all members called for a lower overnight rate, with the recommendations ranging between 3.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent.
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