The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday, Nov. 6, edition that signs suggest Canada and the United States are making progress toward a trade deal, as Prime Minister Mark Carney said this week that the Americans are "offering more" and "asking less." The Globe's Salmaan Farooqui writes that a deal would be great news for the economy, but it could also send interest rates and variable mortgage rates higher. The Bank of Canada has faced two opposing forces: rising oil prices due to the war in Iran leaning toward rate hikes, and a weak economy from the trade war pushing for cuts. The bank chose to implement a quarter-point hike in October after months of a wait-and-see approach, but Governor Tiff Macklem has signalled the bank will have to move cautiously going forward. CIBC senior economist Benjamin Tal says if you remove the trade war from the equation, it'll prompt the BOC to hike faster and higher than previously expected. He says: "You would get heat from both directions. Inflation from economic growth because of the deal, and inflation coming from high oil prices." CIBC has forecast that the BOC will hike once more in early 2027, but Mr. Tal says a trade deal could prompt a second hike.