The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that during President Donald Trump's tumultuous second term, Canada benefitted from advantageous trade access to the U.S. The Globe's Jason Kirby writes that if Mr. Trump's new tariffs, however, are implemented next month, Canada's effective tariff rate could rise, placing it close to France and Vietnam.
National Bank of Canada economists Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie say in a note: "Canada's relative tariff advantage will shrink, but remain intact, if 338 levies are introduced. This advantage has already stepped down from its 'peak' in October, 2025, when Canada's tariff rate was 7 percentage points below the global average."
There are many uncertainties regarding the new tariffs Mr. Trump has threatened to impose on Canada under Section 338, a provision the U.S. has never used.
The 50-per-cent tariff on more than 500 categories of products is set to take effect on Aug. 19, and would apply to 5 per cent of Canada's 2025 shipments to the U.S., or $20.1-billion worth of goods.
However, many economists, and even some of the companies that would be hurt by the punishing new duties, view Mr. Trump's threat with a skeptical eye, chalking it up to a negotiating tactic.
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