The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that after surging to a four-decade high in 2022, the annual pace of inflation is back within striking distance of the Bank of Canada's target. A triple-bylined item led by Mark Rendell says that the key question now is how long it will take to make the final leg down. Most of the disinflation over the past 18 months has come from falling oil prices and improvements in global supply chains. What is left of inflation is being driven by domestic forces and concentrated in services, making it harder to tame without slower economic growth and rising unemployment. In January, the central bank said the Canadian economy had moved into a state of "excess supply," which should put downward pressure on prices over time. Still, there has been relatively little progress on the other key metrics. "To get that [interest rate] pivot soon, in the first half of the year, you pretty quickly need to see some of those things moving in the right direction," said National Bank's Taylor Schleich. "They don't have to be back to where the BoC ultimately wants them to be. But you've got to have confidence that those are moving in the right direction. And right now, frankly, we haven't seen that."