The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, April 15, edition that National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is sticking with his "outperform" recommendation for MTY Food Group. The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Shreedhar gave his share target a $3 trim to $51. Analysts on average target the shares at $52. Mr. Shreedhar says in a note: "Q1/F25 performance was pressured by adverse weather, particularly in U.S. frozen treats, while Canada performance was consistent. Encouragingly, early Q2/F25 trends point to more normal operating conditions and MTY indicated consumer behaviour has not materially changed. That said, we acknowledge that the macroeconomic backdrop remains volatile and consistent execution will be key.
Tariff impacts, currently, are not expected to be material; mitigation tools include substitution and pricing. Our EBITDA expectations are revised slightly: F2025 goes to $261.4-million from $260.4-million and F2026 goes to $263.9-million from $265.2-million. ... We believe valuation at 6.7 times our NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA vs. the five-year average of 9.1 times is attractive. In addition, the FCF yield of over 11 per cent is supportive."
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