The Financial Post reports in its Tuesday edition that Kevin Warsh was sworn in as chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, raising questions about his approach to interest rates. The Post's Paula Tran writes that many believe Mr. Warsh will align with President Donald Trump. Mr. Warsh has cited the disinflationary effects of artificial intelligence as a reason for caution on rate hikes. However, he assumes leadership amid rising U.S. inflation, which jumped to 3.8 per cent in April due to increased oil prices from the war in Iran, complicating potential rate cuts.
CIBC's Avery Shenfeld says: "Warsh is dovish. He's been leaning toward the idea that the Fed should be cutting rates, but it's unlikely he's going to step up and do that while inflation is still roaring ahead due to the war. He would be the lone vote for that on the committee right now." Currently, the Fed's key lending rate target sits between 3.5 per cent and 3.75 per cent.
If the Warsh Fed does aggressively pursue rate cuts, Mr. Shenfeld believes it is unlikely that the Bank of Canada, whose key lending rate sits at 2.25 per cent, will do the same.
He says, "Canada has already cut interest rates much more aggressively than the Federal Reserve in this cycle."
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