The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that last week, Manulife Investment Management economist Frances Donald argued in a note to clients that between the two likely outcomes of the current slowdown -- a mild recession, or a "soft landing" in which the economy sinks into a "prolonged" period of minuscule growth -- the former might be the better choice.
The Globe's David Parkinson writes that Ms. Donald clarified in an e-mail conversation: "No person [or economist] should ever cheer a recession -- people can lose their jobs, their income, their homes. However, most economic avenues ahead for Canada are difficult, and a mild recession may, counter-intuitively, be one of the better outcomes." Ms. Donald adds, "Without a moderate to more serious pullback in growth, rate cuts remain a pipe dream." Among economists at Canada's major banks, the average 2024 gross domestic product growth forecast for Canada is a razor-thin 0.6 per cent; for the United States, it is 0.8 per cent. From that tepid a pace, it would not take much at all for both economies to dip into negative territory for two consecutive quarters -- the informal yet often-used definition of what people like to call a "technical recession."
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