The Financial Post reports in its Tuesday, Nov. 4, edition that OPEC+ will pause output increases in the first quarter after a modest hike next month, balancing market share with signs of an emerging surplus. A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that Saudi Arabia and key members agreed to increase output by 137,000 barrels a day next month but will take a break from January to March due to seasonal demand slowdown. This decision comes amid uncertainty for oil traders, with sanctions on Russia affecting supply prospects and concerns about a growing glut expected to worsen next year. RBC's Helima Croft says the pause "is certainly another plot twist, but I think a prudent one given the supply picture uncertainty for the first quarter." Sanctions on Russia have supported oil prices after a recent low, but a delegate noted it is too early for OPEC+ to assess the overall market impact. The January-to-March pause will be the group's first break from adding barrels since starting to restore halted supplies in April.
Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon says: "OPEC+ is blinking but it's a calculated blink. Sanctions on Russian producers have injected a layer of uncertainty into supply forecasts."
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