The Financial Post reports in its Saturday, July 19, edition that a major plank in President Donald Trump's tariff campaign, which was unleashed almost immediately after he took office in January, was to bring industry and manufacturing back to the United States. The Post's Barbara Shecter writes that it was, however, also pitched as a way to bolster U.S. government revenues to help pay for tax cuts in a major piece of legislation Mr. Trump dubbed "one big beautiful bill." While the tariff data so far is being heralded by the Trump administration as a win, policy and trade observers are not as sure it signals a long-term victory. The latest estimate from the Congressional Budget Office is that the legislation, which was signed by Mr. Trump and became law on July 4, will increase deficits by $3.4-trillion over the 2025 to 2034 period.
Queen's University's Robert Wolfe, whose research focus is global trade, says the tariffs suggest an "incoherence" in long-term policy goals, despite the positive early data.
He says: "Either tariffs are a source of revenue, or they are a means to protect American industry -- beyond the short term they can't be both. If imports decline in response to the tax, so will revenues."
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