The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, April 8, edition that a U.S. recession is not the consensus view yet, but could become one if President Donald Trump's tariffs remain and provoke retaliation. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that if a bear market is developing on Wall Street, it has further to fall, especially if the economy slips into recession. Although the S&P 500 narrowly avoided a severe three-day sell-off, stock valuations and earnings forecasts remain too high amid the economic turmoil caused by Mr. Trump's trade policies. A U.S. recession this year is not yet the consensus view -- with only two big banks, JPMorgan and Barclays, officially calling one -- but it almost certainly will be if Mr. Trump's tariffs stay in place and the rest of the world retaliates. The consensus U.S. earnings outlook certainly has not adjusted for what JPMorgan equity analysts say would be the "waterfall event" of a U.S. recession. They have lowered their 2025 earnings per share forecast to $250 (U.S.) from $270 (U.S.), adding that the risks are still skewed to the downside. That essentially implies zero earnings growth this year compared with the consensus view of about 10 per cent.