The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that some signals emerging in various corners of the market suggest that even among the wealthiest and most knowledgeable investors, anxiety about inflation persists. The Globe's John Raply writes that despite the Federal Reserve's assertions that it has eradicated it, there are valid reasons to be skeptical. In spite of the easing economic conditions, investors seem hesitant to lend money to the government. This could signal that investors believe the Fed is reducing rates too soon and that inflation may be returning. A closer examination of long-term inflation trends supports this possibility.
It is worth noting that, unlike its typical practice of cutting interest rates only when the economy sharply slows, the Fed is easing during a period of economic strength. Some economists are therefore anticipating that the inflation rate may rise again, potentially next year. Additionally, there are growing concerns that the national debt is becoming unsustainable, leading investors to seek higher yields for lending to the government.
Higher bond yields will eventually affect other interest rates, complicating the Fed's plans for a smooth economic transition.
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