The Globe and Mail in its Friday edition does a roundup of what the bank wonks have said during the week. The Globe's Scott Barlow writes that BMO chief economist Doug Porter notes that domestic credit growth came in at 2.9 per cent year-over-year, the lowest rate in 30 years. He added that it is also the first time in 30 years that credit growth has trailed disposable income improvement. JPMorgan global equity strategist Mislav Matejka expects that weakening U.S. economic growth and falling corporate pricing power will place downward pricing pressure on banks, autos, consumer discretionary and (non-aerospace and defense) industrials. TD economist Shernette Mcleod estimates that U.S. holiday spending will rise 4.5 per cent this year, down from 6 per cent in 2022. Wage gains and pandemic-era savings are supportive, offsetting weak sentiment and a shift toward services-related spending (such as restaurants) that are not included as holiday spending. Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste-Marie highlighted the release of the U.S. leading economic indicator index this week which, at minus-7.6 per cent year-over-year, is consistent with economic contraction and recession. That number is still not enough to confirm a contraction.
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