The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Nov. 23, edition that the recent rally that has lifted U.S. stocks and bonds may be more of a year-end rebound than a turning point. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports
that since late October investors have increased bets that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle is over after signs of cooling inflation and job growth and a better-than-expected third quarter earnings season.
Ten-year Treasury yields hit a 16-year high of 5.021 per cent in late October, but have fallen back to 4.414 per cent. Lower yields have driven a technology-fuelled equities rally.
Some big investors and advisers believe, however, that reasons to cheer are short lived and growing concerns over the economy will start weighing on asset prices early next year.
Pershing Square Capital's Ryan Israel said last week, "We've started seeing some signs that things are a little weaker than what people may believe." He says the main focus now is where the economy is heading.
Allianz analyst Mohamed El Erian says markets may have "gone too far in extrapolating" rate cuts in early 2024 from recent data suggesting that consumer inflation is falling and the U.S. labour market is weakening.
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