The Financial Post reports in its Tuesday edition that investors see different ways out of what appears to have been a purgatory-like environment over the past three years.
A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that on one side, there are those positioning for a happy scenario to play out, with a return to the pre-COVID-19 low-inflation and low-rate environment without any material impact on the economy. Somehow, there will be a soft landing and capital will be nearly free once again, thereby supporting record high multiples for tech stocks and falling bond yields.
This scenario has had many stop-and-gos. It is once again playing out after the Federal Reserve's presser two weeks ago, with long-dated bonds rallying and the mega-tech companies leading the S&P 500 higher.
To give you an example of just how pervasive this trade is, hedge-fund exposure to mega-cap tech is now in the 99th percentile, according to Goldman Sachs Group. At the start of 2023, this exposure was in the 12th percentile. This brings us back to the bad economic news being viewed as good news for the interest rate-sensitive segments of the market, with the thinking being that it will cause the Fed to cut rates sooner than later.
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