The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Sept. 21, edition that with oil prices at their highest this year, the last thing U.S. consumers, businesses and policymakers need is another inflationary headache. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that the fledgling auto workers strike, if it lasts and broadens out, could be just that. Most economists reasonably focus on the temporary blow to U.S. economic output or payrolls from a lengthy strike across the sector. The economy could contract almost one full percentage point in the fourth quarter, say Morgan Stanley economists.
However, the potential effect on new and used car prices, at a time when inventories remain historically low, combined with a significant wage settlement, could also move the inflation dial.
This is a worst-case scenario for the Fed. Policymakers and market participants will not need reminding of the role supply shocks and shortages of chips, parts and other inputs had in driving inflation to the highest in more than 40 years after the pandemic. JPMorgan's
Michael Feroli says a prolonged nationwide strike could put already-low inventory under heavy strain, posing "significant" upside risk to auto prices.
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