The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that as bonds emerge from a historic sell-off, some investors expect better times in the U.S. fixed-income market next year -- as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cuts play out as expected. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe says that a fourth-quarter rally saved bonds from an unprecedented third straight annual loss in 2023. The late-year surge came after Treasuries hit their lowest level since 2007 in October. Fuelling those gains were expectations the Fed is likely finished with rate increases and will cut borrowing costs next year. Falling rates are expected to guide Treasury yields lower and push up bond prices. The recent bond rally has eased financial conditions, a measure of the availability of funding in an economy. Some worry that could fuel a rebound in growth or even inflation, delaying the Fed's rate cuts. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index has fallen by 136 basis points since late October and on Dec. 19 stood at its lowest level since August, 2022. "The more markets move to price in cuts, the less urgency the Fed should probably feel about delivering them, because the markets are doing the easing for them," said Nomura's Jeremy Schwartz.
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