The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that futures pricing shows that traders expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates by September, 2024. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that compared with expectations earlier this year on rates starting to head lower in January, 2024. Bullish investors, however, say signs of ebbing consumer price pressures will keep another rate increase at bay. Inflation, as measured by the Fed's preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, has eased from its 7-per-cent peak last summer to 3.3 per cent in July. While resilient growth has pushed most strategists to revise forecasts for a 2023 recession, an autoworkers strike, a possible federal government shutdown and a student loan squeeze are looming over the economy in the fourth quarter. At the same time, some believe the economy risks a recession -- or at least a sharp slowdown -- next year. One recession signal has been the inverted Treasury yield curve, which has preceded past downturns. Vanguard manager Arvind Narayanan says: "Our view is that the economy is slowing and so we would want to be more defensive overall. That leads us to be biased toward long duration."