The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Sept. 14, edition that according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, financial markets see less than a 50-per-cent chance of the Fed raising rates again this year. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that since March, 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25-per-cent to 5.50-per-cent range.
Some economists believe inflation risks are tilted to the upside in the near term, citing rising insurance costs, especially for motor vehicles. Health insurance costs are expected to rise from October through next spring after the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics, which compiles the report, recently announced changes to its methodology for measuring these costs.
A strike in the automobile sector could disrupt supply chains and boost motor vehicle prices if it lasted more than a month, with auto inventories already lean. Economists, however, are not convinced that auto union gains would boost wage inflation, noting that a small fraction of workers are union members.
"The impact on aggregate earnings and inflation would be negligible," says Oxford Economics economist Michael Pearce.
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