The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Aug. 26, edition that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by almost 6 per cent at an annualized rate in the third quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's gross domestic product forecasting tool. The Globe's Tim Shufelt writes the economy, however, is growing, consumer spending is steady and unemployment is low at 5.5 per cent. There is, of course, still time to botch the whole thing. On Friday, Fed chairman Jerome Powell left further rate hikes on the table, saying that inflation remains too high and the economy too hot. That leaves lots of room for a policy error that could push the economy into a recession, as has happened plenty of times in the past. Economists also frequently remind us that monetary policy has a built-in lag. It may take 18 months for the full impact of rate hikes to be felt. There is, however, good reason to believe that delay has already played out. After all, central banks have been telegraphing their commitment to slaying inflation since March, 2022. Combine the Fed's and the Bank of Canada's aversion to inflation with the inescapable lags in monetary policy, and you have a recipe for overtightening.