The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, July 22, edition that Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius has set himself apart from the crowd in recent months by declaring that the United States will not sink into a recession. The Globe's Ian McGugan writes that until recently, his optimism was a rarity. Most Wall Street forecasters began painting doomsday scenarios when the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates more than a year ago. Mr. Hatzius insisted the outlook was more positive. He argued a downturn was not likely when jobs were plentiful and disposable income was growing. He is now turning even more optimistic. Last week he reduced his estimated probability of a recession over the next 12 months to a mere 20 per cent. That is down from 25 per cent. "We're still in the soft-landing camp," he told an on-line conference. Not only does he predict the U.S. will avoid a recession, but he says most developed markets will manage a similar feat. Mr. McGugan says this is encouraging news for Canadians. Both here and in the U.S., many forecasters predicted a recession would hit early this year. So far, it has not materialized, and, if Mr. Hatzius is correct, it will not happen at all.