The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday, June 23, edition that Goldman Sachs U.S. economist Jan Hatzius sees only a 25-per-cent chance of a recession, but the firm's U.S. equity strategist Cormac Conners thinks now is the right time for portfolio managers to buy downside protection for the S&P 500.
The Globe's Scott Barlow writes that Mr. Conners provides five reasons for his view.
One, derivatives that benefit from higher stock prices are popular and expensive while derivatives that benefit from lower equity prices are less popular and attractively priced. It is, in other words, cheap to buy protection against lower stock prices. Two, the narrowness of 2023's market rally implies a higher risk of market decline. Three, average valuation levels are elevated relative to history. Four, the strategist believes current stock prices are already discounting strong future economic growth that may not occur. Finally, money managers are no longer underweight equities, reducing any potential tailwind from that positioning.
This is a case of Goldman advocating a buying-snow-shovels-in-summertime strategy -- buying protection before everyone else wants it.
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