The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that last week the S&P 500 emerged from its bear-market funk (returning to where it was two years ago) and entered bull-market territory, meaning it has gained 20 per cent from its recent lows in October. The Globe's Ian McGugan writes that this is good news, but investors should keep in mind that the big picture has not changed. Central banks are still determined to wrestle inflation to the ground, come what may. Their inflation-fighting efforts will probably involve a recession or at least a significant slowdown. The question is when. Until the timing and size of any slowdown become clearer, markets will be trapped in a waiting game, Deutsche Bank argued in a report last week. It expects a painful U.S. recession to start in the fourth quarter of this year but it acknowledges the profound uncertainties around any forecast. Some prominent observers, including Goldman Sachs and the Institute for International Finance, argue that the U.S. will escape a downturn and manage a soft landing despite its current inflationary woes. Other well-known institutional investors, including BlackRock and Deutsche Bank, see a hard landing for the economy and stock market.