The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Feb. 21, edition that once the economic pundits are debating whether they see smoke, the fire may have already begun. The Globe's David Parkinson writes that the topic of recession among economists and market strategists is growing. On Wednesday, a wide range of prominent news sources all had reports discussing the probability and timing of a recession. While recent unimpressive economic data and a sudden rise in caution at the Canadian and U.S. central banks have sparked the recession musings, last week's United States retail sales report seriously fanned the flames. Gluskin, Sheff + Assoc. chief economist David Rosenberg -- who Mr. Parkinson says has a reputation as a pessimist, but also a reputation for being right, famously for foreseeing the 2008-09 recession -- said the retail numbers contained more than a few red flags. He said the drop in sales of necessities is "cause for concern." He noted that restaurant sales, which he called "a leading indicator," have fallen in four of the past five months, "at a pace we haven't seen in 25 years." Yet more optimistic economists dismissed the December sales figures as an anomaly.