The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that National Bank's Gabriel Dechaine has reaffirmed his "outperform" recommendation for Canadian Western Bank. The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Dechaine has an unchanged $33 share target. Analysts on average target the shares at $32.64. Mr. Dechaine says the outlook for credit is keeping Canadian bank stocks "in check" ahead of next week's start of fourth quarter earnings season in the sector. Mr. Dechaine says, "Until investors gain confidence that a recession (modest or severe) can be avoided, the sector will remain valuation-constrained." In a research report released Tuesday, Mr. Dechaine reduced his fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial estimates, expecting banks to "bolster their performing allowances in light of a deteriorating macro environment."
He adds: "As we get nearer the 2025/2026 Canadian mortgage refinancing period, we believe upward pressure on bank performing provisions will intensify. This year, banks have added $2.4-billion to performing provisions (5 basis points increase in Perf. ACL). Our Q4/23 estimates have been updated to assume a slightly sharper increase to these provisions."
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