The Financial Post reports in its Friday edition that Brent crude is expected to average more than $100 a barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, says Goldman Sachs (all figures U.S.). A Bloomberg dispatch to the Post reports that Goldman analyst Daan Struyven says: "The situation remains fluid. ... We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside."
While Tehran and Washington said they paused the fighting in exchange for reopening the conduit, there is little clarity about what was agreed.
At present, Goldman's base-case outlook is for flows through the strait to start picking up this weekend, followed by a gradual, one-month recovery in Persian Gulf exports to prewar levels. Under that scenario, Brent is seen averaging $82 a barrel in the third quarter and $80 in the fourth. Mr. Struyven says under Goldman's so-called adverse view, including the reopening being "postponed" for one month, Brent was expected to average above $100 a barrel in the second half. Another outcome, based on a longer closure and the loss of some regional production, came with even higher forecasts, with Brent seen at $120 a barrel in the third quarter and $115 in the fourth.
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