The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent on Wednesday. The Globe's guest columnists Jeremy Kronick and Steve Ambler write that the move came as headline inflation rose to 2.8 per cent in April, up from 2.4 per cent in March, near the upper limit of the bank's target range. Limited price pressures outside of gasoline and zero economic growth in the first quarter added to this choice, which The Globe called appropriate.
The key question is the bank's next move. Will inflation impact more sectors, pushing rates up? Despite positive April labour data, will economic weakness keep rates low amid structural challenges and the review of the USMCA? Or will the BOC maintain the current policy rate and reassess the economy after these events?
The columnists admit to being torn, as some of the underlying inflationary measures that the BOC uses point in different directions. Some suggest headline inflation -- which is what the BOC actually targets -- will move back toward the 2-per-cent target, while other measures of inflation signal a continued rise in headline inflation. If trade talks with the U.S. faulter the BOC may have to lower the policy rate sooner.
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