The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that the Canadian economy stalled in the first quarter of the year, posting a small annualized decline in gross domestic product as the country struggles to grow in the face of trade tensions with the United States. The Globe's Mark Rendell writes that Canada's real GDP contracted 0.1 per cent on an annualized basis between January and March. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is sometimes referred to as a "technical recession." However, economists cautioned it may be premature to use the term, as the first-quarter decline was small, and could easily be revised upward.
"Overall this was a very weak report from most angles that shows that trade uncertainty and tariffs are continuing to hold back growth, while consumers have little ammunition left for spending ahead, and interest-sensitive sectors are lagging," CIBC senior economist Katherine Judge said in a note to clients.
"Our base case also assumes progress towards reducing some tariffs (namely aluminum and possibly steel) in the coming months, and if the oil price shock starts to fade over that period as well, GDP will return to sustainable growth for the rest of the year," she wrote.
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