The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that the rise in interest rates since the Iran war began reveals how dangerous the moment has become. The Globe's contributing columnist John Rapley writes that if the war resumes and recessions occur, Western governments will have less fiscal firepower to combat them than before. Meanwhile, Western central banks, after decades of underwriting cheap government credit, are reluctant to cut rates as inflation worsens. And although the current rise in inflation has been driven by a supply shock, recent research by the U.S. Federal Reserve suggests that the economic landscape may differ from what existed prepandemic, producing more stubborn upward pressure on inflation. Taken together, these factors make it likely that interest rates will settle at a higher plateau than before the war. This, in turn, could affect the broader investment landscape, reducing the value of stocks and real estate. Even if peace returns, there may be a prolonged market slump. If fighting resumes, the market shock could be severe. Restoring peace is thus not only a moral imperative, it is an economic one too. Without it, Mr. Rapley says we will all pay a high price.
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