The Financial Post reports in its Saturday, Jan. 31, edition that the Canadian economy could struggle to meet the Bank of Canada's latest predictions for growth after gross domestic product for November undershot estimates, say economists.
The Post's Gigi Suhanic writes that economic growth was flat in November, slightly undershooting estimates for GDP to rise 0.1 per cent, but better than the 0.3 per cent contraction in October.
Statistics Canada estimates the economy expanded by 0.1 per cent in December, so the economy likely contracted by an annualized 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter.
The BOC, in its latest Monetary Policy Report, called for fourth quarter GDP to come in at zero per cent. For the first quarter of 2026, GDP was forecast to rebound of 1.8 per cent.
Capital Economics economist Alexandra Brown says, "The monthly data for November is grimmer than it first appears." Capital Economics is currently estimating that fourth quarter annualized GDP will come in at minus 0.3 per cent, weaker than the BOC's flat estimate for the quarter.
Looking ahead, Ms. Brown says, "The weak December gain decreases the likelihood of a sharp quarterly growth rebound of 1.8 percent in Q1 as expected by the Bank of Canada."
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