The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that there are worrying developments in the United States Treasury bond market.
The Globe's guest columnist Kevin Yin writes that on Aug. 18, a sell-off of long-maturity Treasury bonds caused 30-year yields to jump to 5.33 per cent, the highest since 2007. The Treasury's recent buyback policy failed to stabilize markets.
If there is a financial crisis in the next few years, it will likely start in the bond market, and especially Treasuries.
The concern is not just about an asset price collapse, but that it affects a key asset in our financial system, which facilitates large-scale lending and borrowing by banks during normal times.
Bank runs, as opposed to mere bursting of asset bubbles, leave the most lasting damage, as both the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis demonstrate. If the Treasury market fails, banks cannot borrow from each other, and stop lending to businesses that have nothing to do with Treasury debt. This spillover nature of banking crises is why the severity and duration of the 2008 recession dwarf mere stock market crashes like the dot-com bubble.
Debt haunts all developed economies, but the U.S. is unique in the scale of its borrowing.
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