The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that big investors are still optimistic that the Persian Gulf troubles will pass, the global economy will recover and share prices will rise this year. The Globe's Ian McGugan tells readers not to be surprised if the mood takes some rapid turns in the days ahead. Citigroup's Scott Chronert, in a note, summed up the fluid state of current thinking. His note begin by reaffirming Citi's belief that the S&P 500 will rise from its current level around 6,600 and finish 2026 around 7,700, delivering yet another year of big gains for patient investors. He wrote: "There are no changes to our base case at this point. However, the duration of the Iran conflict and private-credit uncertainty, along with AI disruption and funding concerns, present tail risks that cannot be ignored." Mr. McGugan says to put that another way, the living room is looking absolutely dandy -- if you ignore the smoke billowing from under the door. What is generating the smoke? Much of it comes from the growing mess in the Gulf. Futures markets are now betting that what was initially supposed to be a short-term bump in oil prices could stretch for months and send energy prices to painful heights.