The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that the S&P 500 Index cruised well above 6,100 last week, marking its highest level since February. The Globe's David Berman writes that the S&P flirted with a record high on Thursday, and is now up 27.1 per cent from its recent low in April. Perhaps most importantly, the U.S. blue-chip benchmark has led the world over the past month. The U.S. market's impressive rebound over the past three months is surprising, but it likely reflects a better outlook for the second half of the year. It suggests that investors no longer expect a recession and are growing convinced that U.S. President Donald Trump has made a policy pivot after delaying some tariffs. There is, however, still plenty of grim U.S. economic news, and it could weigh on stocks that look vulnerable after approaching record highs.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis this week estimated that the economy contracted by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter, after inflation, surprising many economists.
More deportations, perhaps bringing the total to 1 per cent of the U.S. labour force, could knock another 0.9 per cent off U.S. gross domestic product, according to Michel Nies, an economist at Citigroup.
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