The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that bond investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates on Wednesday. A Reuters dispatch to The Globe reports that the market's response, however, could depend on what the Fed officials communicate about persistent inflation. If they provide more signals that suggest a more aggressive approach to easing, it could impact the market's reaction. Stronger-than-expected economic growth and stickier inflation this year has led investors to push back expectations on the U.S. central bank's first rate cut to June, from May, and reduce bets on how many cuts are likely this year.
Traders are now pricing in three 25 basis points cuts, in line with Fed policy-makers median expectations made in December. The Fed is due to give updated economic projections and refresh its "dot plot" graphing policy-makers interest-rate projections at the meeting. Loomis, Sayles & Co. head Matt Eagon says: "What will be really interesting to see is if the
Fed is still comfortable in the dot plots to still be showing the possibility of three rate cuts for this year. Or will they start to say we've got to push back against this a little bit longer."
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