The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday edition that Canada's real GDP shrank at a 0.1-per-cent annual rate in the first quarter, following a 1-per-cent decline in the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a potential recession based on the "two negative quarters" rule. The Post's David Rosenberg writes that the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council, however, formally dates recessions by assessing depth, duration and breadth across various economic indicators, not just GDP. They have not declared a recession yet, but it is a close call. The economy experienced three out of four quarters of real GDP contractions, leading to a slight year-over-year negative trend. A recession typically accompanies such a trend. Additionally, the labour market is facing net job losses and a rising unemployment rate. It is disappointing to see that negative headline, especially with a consensus forecast of 1.5 per cent annualized. Even a 4.3-percentage-point contribution from inventory accumulation couldn't prevent the decline. The Bank of Canada would be foolish to consider rate hikes, which have been priced into the money market recently. But it's not just GDP. It's also the labour market that has the recession label.