The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that a sustained ceasefire in Iran, if reached, should take some pressure off the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates to prevent the oil price shock from stoking inflation. The Globe's Mariya Postelnyak and Mark Rendell write that financial markets on Wednesday were still pricing in 1-1/2 quarter-point rate hikes from the Bank of Canada in the back half of the year -- compared with earlier predictions of rate cuts in 2026 prior to the start of the war. "One thing that's super important to remember is that [oil prices are] still significantly higher than back in January or February, so there's still going to be a big push on inflation, regardless of what's happening today," said Scotiabank forecaster Olivier Gervais. CIBC economist Benjamin Tal said the trajectory of monetary policy will depend on where oil prices go from here. Oil futures markets are expecting around $75 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate by the end of 2026 (all figures U.S.). But if prices remain close to current levels through the year, the inflationary shock will be hard to ignore. "If we are in the $90 to $100 range, then we're talking about the Bank of Canada hiking," Mr. Tal said.