The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, says tariffs are boomeranging on the U.S. job market. Mr. Holt writes that official U.S. non-farm payrolls have been moving sideways since President Trump's so-called Liberation Day, which amplifies the relative underperformance of the U.S. job market to Canada, where jobs have been booming. Meanwhile, the adjusted U.S. non-farm numbers incorporate coming negative revisions dating back to April of 2024.
President Trump lauds the virtuous effects of tariffs for bringing home jobs. That is not happening. Greater uncertainty and tumbling confidence since the tariff wars began are reducing the hiring appetite on top of the effects of tighter U.S. immigration policy and a minimal effect to date from artificial intelligence. The rapid year-over-year deceleration of U.S. job growth is flashing orange and correlates with the job markets that preceded past U.S. recessions. The affordability and job security concerns that Americans feel are real relative to the promises coming out of the White House. Mr. Trump may need to pivot very rapidly before the November, 2026, midterm elections.
© 2026 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.