The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday, Dec. 1, edition that Canadian banks are poised to report fourth quarter results with the index sitting at record highs. The Globe's guest columnist Amber Kanwar writes that the sector has proved to be Teflon against tariff anxieties and a weaker Canadian economy. However, most of the advance in stocks has been based on multiple expansions, not pure earnings growth. "After an exceptionally strong run in the fall, the Canadian banks are trading at levels that could charitably be described as fully valued," said Jefferies analyst John Aiken. He downgraded Toronto-Dominion Bank and Royal Bank of Canada on valuation concerns. This left Mr. Aiken with no buys on any Canadian banks. He estimates that the bank group is trading 2.3 times above their 20-year average. Of course, high multiples can be resolved in two ways: the stock price comes down or earnings grow. Investors will be gauging how cautious banks are for 2026 by observing their provisions for potentially bad loans. Banks have been very active with buybacks, so questions will arise about whether that trend will continue or shift toward M&A. Capital markets are expected to remain strong.
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