The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, Nov. 11, edition that the U.S. government shutdown may soon end, leading to potential market chaos. The Globe's Jameson Berkow writes that traders have been relying on unofficial data during this period, and once official information is released, the gap between estimates and reality is expected to trigger a dramatic market response.
CIBC's Ian Pollick says: "It is terrifying, to be honest with you. I know what happens the day this is done. You will get this copious amount of data printing all at once, or in small batches in very quick succession." RBC economist Josh Nye reported on Nov. 4 that the list of delayed economic data releases has grown to 28, including key payroll and GDP figures. Statistics Canada announced on Oct. 24 that September's international trade data will be delayed due to reliance on inputs from the U.S. Census Bureau. If the data remains unavailable when Statscan compiles Canada's third quarter GDP numbers, it will create special estimates of Canadian exports to the U.S., but these estimates may face larger revisions once actual data is available. It is that threat of widespread larger-than-normal revisions that has traders worried.
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