The Financial Post reports in its Tuesday edition that Canada's largest banks are expected to set aside less money for potentially bad loans in their upcoming quarterly earnings reports, as analysts note that investors are becoming more comfortable with tariff-related risks. The Post's Naimul Karim writes that Canaccord Genuity analyst Matthew Lee said in a note on Aug. 20 that the Big Six opted to take "large performing provisions" in their fiscal second quarter to prepare for a "potential North American trade war scenario." However, "three months later, we believe cooler heads may be prevailing." He adds that "with risk models across the industry either improving or remaining unchanged," he expects the sector's performing provisions for credit losses to be on the low end of historical averages. Canada's largest banks serve as key economic indicators. Analysts note that the first two quarters of this fiscal year were heavily influenced by President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canadian products.
Analysts expected PCLs to increase before both the first and second quarters. CIBC's Paul Holden says, "The unemployment rate and credit metrics we track suggest consumers and businesses overall are holding up well."
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