The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that the bar is high as BMO, Scotiabank, RBC and National Bank release third quarter results on Wednesday, and CIBC and TD Bank post theirs on Thursday. Guest columnist Amber Kanwar writes that as a group, the Canadian banks are trading at a record high and have outperformed the Toronto Stock Exchange over the past year. The performance for the group is not bad considering they were supposed to be facing a cliff of mortgage renewals at higher interest rates, while operating in a tepid economic environment. Several factors may help the bottom line. One, there have been seven interest rate cuts from June, 2024, to March, 2025, which should help the banks' margins. Two, there should not be wild swings in provisions for credit losses. Third, expense control has become the new religion at most banks.
The big debate on the sector right now is over the pricing of stocks. The group now trades at a 15-per-cent premium to its historical average, wrote National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine in a preview note to clients. "In our view, this combination is at odds with what has traditionally been a bad thing for bank stocks: weak domestic GDP growth and rising unemployment."
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